China Minzhong - Fibon Analysis

Based on fibonacci retacement, MZ consolidate at retracement point of 61.8% for sometime but unable to rebound off it. Then come last week sell down by unknown fund house, bring them to 50% (another golden support at S0.92). Given that I had buy in a few times on MZ, my capital has been quite tight after my last avg in at S$0.92. Hopefull, it starts to rebound from here. Else next support point will be S$0.86 which is abit dangerous for me.. Good luck to myself.

China MinZhong - Review

If you track my last post on China Minzhong on Dec 2011. My call for buy was on spot. Within 4 mths, it had already hit my 6 mths target price of S$1.10. However, I did not hold until my own TP.. nevertheless, I still make nice profit from it. Now I am back again into this counter with full force.

During month of April 2012, there were a number of open market buy up of Minzhong. Today, Franklin Resources, Inc. and Templeton Worldwide, Inc. both increase their stake to above 8%. TA looks abit flat, therefore, it might take some more time to starts its rally. But overall its consider bullish on this counter.

S&C call for buy at S$0.995. With initial TP at S$1.05 and 6 mths target at S$1.30.

People's Food Holdings Limited

About People's Food Holdings Limited
Founded in 1994, People's Food Holdings Limited has established a strong market presence and is now a nation-wide provider of meat and meat products in China, with an approximate 2% market share. Over the years, our “Jinluo” (金锣) brand grew in popularity to become a household name and has won numerous awards and accolades in recognition of its top quality meat products and high hygiene standards. 

We produce, process, market and distribute top-quality processed meat products such as High Temperature Meat Products (HTMP), Low Temperature Meat Products (LTMP), Chilled Fresh Pork , Frozen Pork, Pig's By-Products as well as Frozen Chicken in China.

S&C Quick Analysis:
Cash balance: Net Cash of about S$0.40. That is about 70% cash to market share value of S$0.58.
Revenue increase about 23% YOY, however net profit fell 46% due to higher cost of sales. Judging from the initial analysis, Pfood core business remains strong and profitable, some of the cost due to inflation and higher administrative cost erode it profit. Some other negative areas are its losses from its associates companies.


Pfood, fundamental still looks well, technical, its share price is currently trading an multiple support range of S$0.55-0.60 range. RSI oversold plus MACD shows signs of cross over. 12 Mar shows Brandes Investment Partners add more stakes in Pfood. This shows that there is still institutional interest in Pfood. This counter is thinly traded and volume is low. 


S&C saw value at current share of at S$0.58 and had already taken position below the the current share price. Initial target price for S&C is S$0.64. Call for buy at S$0.58.

Wilmar - trading buy

Call for trading buy again. I have been buying in at range S$4.9-4.92 and selling at range of S$4.95-5.04 multiple times. I guess it will still take sometime before it really rebound. Current strategy will still be buying at lower band of trading channel and sell for small profit. Tomorrow will be a nice entry day again. Cheers.

China Paper - Rights Issue Review

About China Paper Holdings Limited (www.chinapaper.com.sg) 
Located in Shandong province in the PRC, China Paper is a vertically integrated paper manufacturing company equipped with in-house production facilities for the manufacture of wheat pulp, paper products and paper chemical products. The Group’s core business is in the manufacture and distribution of mixed-pulp based paper products made from a mixture of wood pulp and wheat pulp, with printing paper being its largest product segment.

Rights
The  Company is proposing a renounceable non-underwritten rights issue of up to 907,922,418 new ordinary shares in the capital of the Company ("Rights Shares") at an issue price of S$0.036 for each Rights Share "Issue Price"), on the basis of 1 Rights Share for every  1 existing  ordinary  share. The Issue Price of S$0.036 for each Rights Share represents a discount of approximately 42.86% to the closing price of S$0.063 for each Share traded on the SGX-ST on 30 March 2012.

CY Executive Chairman & QYG SS both committed to take up their rights issue representing near 40% of the total outstanding shares of CP. 

Rationale and use of proceeds
The estimated Rights Issue proceeds of approximately S$32.27 million (after deducting costs 
and expenses) will be used to fund the Project.

1) expansion initiatives to attaining an annual paper production capacity of 350,000 to 500,000 tonnes. 
2) for the construction, installation and operation of an inhouse power generation facility for the Company's paper production facilities.

S&C Quick Analysis:
Financial position before rights: net cash of about S$0.05 per share.
After rights: net cash about S$0.044 per share.

2011 net profit fell about 40% as compared to 2010 due to increasing cost and lowering of sale pricing to keep competitiveness. Group is cautiously optimistic about its next 12 months. I believe CP will still remain profitable for YR2012. However, shareholders will not like its call for rights issue. Even before rights, CP is sitting on so much cash. 

1) Why didnt the company consider utilizing internal resources to fund expansion and for building energy facility?
2) Being S-chip and penny stock, shareholders would likely dump the shares and bring it down to near S$0.036 per share. 
3) Given net cash of S$0.044 per share, this may not be the case as most part of S$32 million raise may be use for expansion. Assuming all proceeding to be used up, its net cash position will be around S$0.025 per share. Thats about 70% net cash to share price of S$0.036. 
4) Resignation of independent director whom is the chairman of audit committee will not bode well with the company too. It also happen at the time when CP running fund rising activity. There must be something we are not aware of.

This rights issues may be well a chance for CY to accumulate more of CP shares if shareholders are not buying its expansion story. Being still on net cash position, given that if the cash position is real, there is no reason why CY wouldnt use this chance to buy up all un-taken rights offering. Then take the company private. I used to own CP shares, but offloaded it long ago at S$0.12 - 0.16 range because of limited upside and alot of scandal relating to S-chip. Indeed, many S-chips are now trading at super low price and only a few are able to sustain the sell down. 

S&C will likely to buy only when CP is trading below S$0.036. I understand the risk of buying penny S-chip. But worth a bet when the price is right. Sure buy price will be below S$0.03. 

Quick Snap Shot: Olam, MinZhong, Wilmar & Ezra

4 heavenly king gathered to bring you cash.

Olam (Bot) - Current price 2.33 (super strong buy)

Wilmar (Bot) - Current price 4.92 (strong buy)

Minzhong (going to buy soon) - Current price 1.025 (strong buy)

Ezra (going to buy soon) - Current price 1.14 (buy)

Olam - update

Call for strong trading buy. Mini showhand if you can afford. All sign for rebound shows up. Wan4 Si1 Jun1 Pei4.. just waiting for the Tong1 Feng1. Selling volume falls, MACD divergences with pre cross over period now (last time i mentioned b4, pre cross over is the time where most rebound take place), RSI starts to see recovery, and also long term wise, 50MA line cross 100MA line (sign of long term trend reversal. the last major MA cross down was in Jan 2011 where Olam starts its downtrend.) So time to position yourself for a rebound. Recommended entry $2.23 to $2.30. Buy at your own risk ;).

S&C already in at $2.30. With cash to pump in more if i wish to double up my stake. 

Wilmar and Olam - call for trading buy

Back to posting after about a month break. After I clear off all my 3 holdings in early Feb. Market continue to rise until very recent fast to see some correction. This may offer some buying opportunity as some corporate results aren't showing good results as expected.

Time for selective trading buy. Some blue chips had fallen to catch my eyes again. Olam and Wilmar are on my list for trading buy. However, one must note that STI or HSI may be consolidation or mild correction mode. Therefore, trade with care for those whom are going to long the market.

Wilmar, fallen from a high of $6.00 to near $5.00. Translating to a near 17% drop in share price in a short 2 weeks. Some analysts said its over reacting to weak result, some expect more correction. Based on chart reading, I still see some weakness ahead before rebounding. Best entry will be somewhere near $4.90 - $4.95 range. However, those whom cant wait can still buy in phases at current price. Remember, do not showhand at this price yet. You may get caught badly... 

Olam, share price also drop about 16% from a high of 2.72 to 2.35. Represent about 15-16% drop too. As you can see, Olam is a very volatile stock. it can easily swing 10cents up or down in a single day. Currently, MACD still turning sign, and RSI also shows oversold. Best bet will be anything near 2.3. Same as Wilmar, buy in 2 phase in case rebound didnt materialise. 

Both call for trading buy now. Good luck.

My Stock Holdings update 21 Jan 2012

Happy Dragon Year 2012 to all readers. I wish all have a smooth dragon riding year ahead and good health.


I decided to share with readers my current share holdings. I will continue to add more holdings slowly as stock price are still consider low. Some of the blue chips had already rebounded off their low and also breakout of their resistance level. However, there are still many mid-cap which are laggers. These are the companies which I will be picking using my bottom out-pick (BOP) theory. 


Reviews:
AscendasIndia Reits: My entry: $0.70. 
Reasons: low gearing, high yield at more than 8% p.a. TA: bottom out at below $0.70.

Xin Ren: My entry: $0.29
Reasons: Reasonable earning report in 2011, current pricing affected by S-chip scandal (waiting for potential re-rating). TA bottom out below $0.30.

Pac Andes: My Entry: $0.21
Reasons: Consistence earning, outlook remains bright. TA: Bottom out at $0.20. Waiting for potential rebound.

Portfolio (P/L) Percentage: 2.9%

Sakari Resources Limited

Sakari hitting long trend downtrend line near $2.10. RSI hitting over 70%. MACD yet to officially turn down. Opening short position at 2.08 for a try. Using risk reward ratio 1:2. Cut loss at 2.13 and take profit at 1.98. Overall market has been quite resilience. Therefore short with care too as there maybe possible breakouts.

Market Review 8 Jan 2012 - STI, HSI, Singtel

1st Market review for 2012. I will 1st examine the STI and HSI to see its general trading direction.

STI should be trading in a restricted channel between 2740 to 2640 range. A breakout over 2740 may propel higher, however I do not see any good news on the horizon near term. Most indication looks boring, STI currently trading below 100MA line. Recommend trading sell on STI at 2720 - 2740 range with 2750 cut loss.   

HSI looks slightly more interesting as the formation of the flag is nearly formed. Suggestion big movement either up or down can be on the line soon. Judging for the gloomy overall outlook from the europe side, I am more bias to a down side. Recommend small position on trading sell on HSI from 18900 - 18500 range with cut loss at 19100.

Singtel appears to be a good shorting target. Recently technical glitches coupled with nice indicators point to my recommendation to short at $3.15 - $3.18 range. Take profit below $3.06. 

Sunday Babe - Redbud Woman, Zijing Woman (紫荆侠)

Profile

Name: Redbud Woman, Zijing Woman (紫荆侠)
DOB: ??? |  Profession: ??? | Country: China
Analysis: Her first appearance was in Hong Kong last year May. After that first appearance, few weeks ago, on a cold Xmas eve, the mysterious woman appeared in Beijing and started distributing warm military coats, food and gifts to beggars and homeless. This mysterious beauty sure capture alot of attention, be it good intention or for fame seeking. Big bust beauty wearing heroine costume with kind heart. I guess many would really like to take a look behind her mask on who she really was.  (classified as IPO stock which attract alot of attention initially but may not sustain long term without more interesting news)


Appearance: Super heroine look showing cleavage
Overall rating: 3.8 Star (out of five) - will re-rate if there are new photo emerge. 

 

The rise in fame of 紫荆侠 also attracts imposers. Fat version and full face cover of fake 紫荆侠 :

Even X-rated movie producer of《3D肉蒲团》is going to film 《3D紫荆侠》in 2012. Whether it will be X-rated not is yet to know. But lets take a preview of the lead actress of 《3D紫荆侠》. She definitely has the look and big racks to fill up 紫荆侠's role.

China Minzhong Rebounded

Post Christmas Highlights:
China Minzhong rebound off their lows of $0.665 to $0.765 as of posting timing.

Coupled with positive press release marking their 40th years anniversary together with the official start of their new industrial park. Its processing capacity is approximately 3 times the current capacity which will spur further growth. The group also sees no slowdown in demand for vegetables so far despite European crisis and global economic uncertainty. Link to press release: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_C9D5027CC480F6404825797200821A0B/$file/Minzhong_PressRelease_27Dec11.pdf?openelement

Currently still holding on to 45 lots of China Minzhong. Based on the chart reading, MACD turning positive and on the way to create cross over. As mentioned on my previous chart reading. Best time to buy is when MACD not yet crossing over. Immediate target to load will be about $0.80 with resistance level near $0.825. If more positive news on macro, there may be a chance of breakout too. Keep watching. S&C recommend a buy with TP $0.80 short term and $1.10 in 6 months.

S Reits Picks for 2012

How I pick a Reits stocks:
1) look at the yields
2) look at the sectors
3) its gearing level
4) share price

Therefore, I have pick the followings which I wish to build on my passive income portfolio:
1) Sabana - Industrial
Yield about 10% p.a at share price of $0.865 with low gearing at about 20+%

2) AIMS AMP - Industrial
Yield about 11% p.a at share price of $0.95 with gearing at about 30%

3) Ascendas India Trust - Industrial
Yield about 10% at share price of $0.69

4) Lippo Mall - Retail (Indonesia)
Yield about 10% at share price of $0.34 with low gearing at about 12%.

All these Reits also appear to have capital appreciation chances if market are stable.

Sunday Babe - Viann Zhang Xinyu 张馨予 (China)

Profile

Name: Viann Zhang Xinyu (张馨予)
DOB: 28 March 1987
Country: China
Profession: Model/ Celebrity
Analysis: Hailed as the #1 Beauty from Suzhou. With titles like China's Best Soccer Babe (中国第一足球宝贝) and Best Online Gaming Model (网游第一美女), she's becoming one of the fast rising star in China. Indeed, her angelic face and devil-like figure (33F cup) sure capture a few more looks from guys. Fame raises fast for her with some scandal with Ron Ng.  (classified as growth stock S-chip (due to gaining fame through some scandal) -worth keeping if you got the money)
Appearance: Classy oriental look
Overall rating: 4.5 Star (out of five) 

Market Review 8 Dec 2011 - Capitaland, NOL, China Minzhong

Recap: Last review on noble was spot on. It rebounded from 1.06 to a high of 1.245. But I didnt follow through my analysis and too impatient. Else I would have reap about 2k profit. Another of my trade Sakari did pretty well too, entering at 1.885 and I exited way too early at 1.94. Which later balloon to as high as 2.11. missing out a 1k potential profit again. Cool entry but poor exit. Need to improve on this.

After a week of rally, I cannot find any interesting stock to long. Therefore went short on NOL. I also may go long on China Minzhong. (need to watch closely in case it break the support line.)

Market Review 27 Nov 2011 - STI, Noble and etc

After quite a break, I'm back to trading. I will be doing a quick analysis on the charting of STI and a few blue chip stocks. Currently my only opening position is Noble at average price of S$1.12.

Seems like STI may be in for a inverse head and shoulder if they are able to hold above 2600. Chances to rebound seems quite possible but may just be short-live. Much depends on the macro level of other market. Risk taker may position in your  trade in phases to catch sudden rebound (May not happen too).

We knew that they suffered  their 1st loss in 14 years and CEO had also quit on the same day of earning report. There were some share-buy back around $1.175-$1.21 range, however it was not able to stop Noble from falling further. From the chart analysis, noble is currently a downtrending stock trading within the given channel. Current price coincide with the lower band of the trading channel. Based on the MACD, before any cross over, is usually the point to start accumulating. MACD turning green with RSI near 30%. I am quite confident that Noble will rebound in 1-2 weeks time. 1st resistance will be $1.20, follow by $1.30. I am not looking for large profit due to the weak economic outlook. Therefore, if there is nice rebound of about 10-20 cents, I am happy to offload it unless more positive news are out. 

Some sign of reverse head and shoulder in sight, however, other indicator does not show strong support yet. Will avoid  trading Genting until stronger indication of rebound in sight.

Actually, I quite like this counter due to the fact that they diversified into non core business (loan). But investors do not seems to like it and their share price was very depressed even they were able to make decent profits. One likely reason was ship builder likely to going into tough situation if Europe continue to give problems. The chart does not look nice at all. Avoid trading YZJ too given marco outlook and chart signal downwards. 

Sunday Babe - Hannah Quinlivan (Jay Chou's Girlfriend)

Profile

Name: Hannah Quinlivan (昆凌)
DOB: 12 August 1993
Country: Taiwanese/ Australian.
Profession: Model/ Celebrity
Analysis: Apart from her sweet looking appearance, being young maybe her most valuable asset. Other than that, she has Jay Chou being the "Kao Shan" (backing). So even if she got nothing else but look, she is still a media/gossips magnet. (classified as Penny Speculating Stock - lots of surprising element)

Appearance: Cute, mixed eurasian look
Overall rating: 3.0 Star (out of five)

FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge

After clearing all exam, finally I have time to blog again. About a month ago, I submitted my recommended portfolio for FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge and my portfolio was featured. Before the submission, there was not instruction to give the suggested funds for the particular sector which we recommended, so I just submitted the allocation. Therefore, I take take this opportunity to post my recommended funds here for those who is interested to know based on my recommended portfolio. Below is the portfolio posted on FSM - http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=5737 : 

PORTFOLIO 4

Asia ex-Japan - 25% allocation will be split into 3 funds: namely:

1. FTIF-TEMPLETON ASIAN GRTH A(ACC) SGD - Focus On Energy 

2. FIRST STATE ASIAN GROWTH FUND -  Focus On Financial

3. HGIF ASIA EX-JAP EQ SM COS SGD AD - Focus On Small - Mid Cap 

Global Emerging Markets - 15% allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely:

1. FIRST STATE GEM LEADERS - Well Diversified In Terms Of Industries

2. ABERDEEN GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS - Good Exposure To Financials And Energy Sectors

China & Hong Kong - Total 10%

1. ABERDEEN CHINA OPPORTUNITIES - 73% Allocation On Hong Kong Stocks

2. FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS-SGD - 92% Allocation On China Stocks

High Yield Bonds - 15%

1. PRU MTHLY INCOME PLAN CL A - Mainly Invest On Us High Yield Bonds And Asian Bonds

Emerging Market Bonds - 15%

1. FIDELITY EMERMKTDEBT A-SGD - Over 50% On Government Debt

Asian Bonds - 20%,  allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely: 

1. FIDELITY ASIAN HY AMDIST USD - Over 50% On Asian Industrial Bonds

2. LEGG MASON WA ASIAN BOND TRUST - Mainly On Asian Government Debt

PHILOSOPHY BEHIND PORTFOLIO 4

This portfolio aims to achieve mid to long term capital appreciation by investing 50% to bonds funds and 50% into equity funds. Our current view on the market is that Asia equities are generally undervalued after huge the correction from August to October 2011. At the same time, we believe that the Europe debt problem cannot be solved in the near term but do not wish to miss out on the upside opportunities on the brighter Asia market.

Based on a three year average annualised return on high yield bonds, Asian Bonds and Emerging Market bonds all have a yield above 10%. Therefore this balanced portfolio offers stable yield from high return bonds to offset volatility during tumultuous market conditions while this arrangement still has the flexibility to rebalance towards to 60-65% equity if the overall market continues to deteriorate. As we are bias toward Asia markets, we have allocated an overall 35% weight on Asia equity including single country equity in China and Hong Kong which we believe offer the highest growth po tential. Global Emerging Market's equity's three years average annualised return is about 15% (reasonable return). This is to diversify the weightage on the equity portion as to not overweighting on the Asia region as a risk control measure. Overall, this portfolio's objective is to gain 15-25% return per annual basis.

Tiger Airway Holdings Ltd - update

Mr. Anthony Alfred Peter Davis is the Group President and Group Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director of Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd is selling off his rights-issued shares. This was a show of no confident in his company at least in the short term. My previous posting target price of S$0.066 was reached, currently trading at S$0.655 per share. As such, without further news, spikes&curves change our view on Tiger Airway to neutral.