Market Review 27 Nov 2011 - STI, Noble and etc

After quite a break, I'm back to trading. I will be doing a quick analysis on the charting of STI and a few blue chip stocks. Currently my only opening position is Noble at average price of S$1.12.

Seems like STI may be in for a inverse head and shoulder if they are able to hold above 2600. Chances to rebound seems quite possible but may just be short-live. Much depends on the macro level of other market. Risk taker may position in your  trade in phases to catch sudden rebound (May not happen too).

We knew that they suffered  their 1st loss in 14 years and CEO had also quit on the same day of earning report. There were some share-buy back around $1.175-$1.21 range, however it was not able to stop Noble from falling further. From the chart analysis, noble is currently a downtrending stock trading within the given channel. Current price coincide with the lower band of the trading channel. Based on the MACD, before any cross over, is usually the point to start accumulating. MACD turning green with RSI near 30%. I am quite confident that Noble will rebound in 1-2 weeks time. 1st resistance will be $1.20, follow by $1.30. I am not looking for large profit due to the weak economic outlook. Therefore, if there is nice rebound of about 10-20 cents, I am happy to offload it unless more positive news are out. 

Some sign of reverse head and shoulder in sight, however, other indicator does not show strong support yet. Will avoid  trading Genting until stronger indication of rebound in sight.

Actually, I quite like this counter due to the fact that they diversified into non core business (loan). But investors do not seems to like it and their share price was very depressed even they were able to make decent profits. One likely reason was ship builder likely to going into tough situation if Europe continue to give problems. The chart does not look nice at all. Avoid trading YZJ too given marco outlook and chart signal downwards. 

Sunday Babe - Hannah Quinlivan (Jay Chou's Girlfriend)

Profile

Name: Hannah Quinlivan (昆凌)
DOB: 12 August 1993
Country: Taiwanese/ Australian.
Profession: Model/ Celebrity
Analysis: Apart from her sweet looking appearance, being young maybe her most valuable asset. Other than that, she has Jay Chou being the "Kao Shan" (backing). So even if she got nothing else but look, she is still a media/gossips magnet. (classified as Penny Speculating Stock - lots of surprising element)

Appearance: Cute, mixed eurasian look
Overall rating: 3.0 Star (out of five)

FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge

After clearing all exam, finally I have time to blog again. About a month ago, I submitted my recommended portfolio for FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge and my portfolio was featured. Before the submission, there was not instruction to give the suggested funds for the particular sector which we recommended, so I just submitted the allocation. Therefore, I take take this opportunity to post my recommended funds here for those who is interested to know based on my recommended portfolio. Below is the portfolio posted on FSM - http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=5737 : 

PORTFOLIO 4

Asia ex-Japan - 25% allocation will be split into 3 funds: namely:

1. FTIF-TEMPLETON ASIAN GRTH A(ACC) SGD - Focus On Energy 

2. FIRST STATE ASIAN GROWTH FUND -  Focus On Financial

3. HGIF ASIA EX-JAP EQ SM COS SGD AD - Focus On Small - Mid Cap 

Global Emerging Markets - 15% allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely:

1. FIRST STATE GEM LEADERS - Well Diversified In Terms Of Industries

2. ABERDEEN GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS - Good Exposure To Financials And Energy Sectors

China & Hong Kong - Total 10%

1. ABERDEEN CHINA OPPORTUNITIES - 73% Allocation On Hong Kong Stocks

2. FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS-SGD - 92% Allocation On China Stocks

High Yield Bonds - 15%

1. PRU MTHLY INCOME PLAN CL A - Mainly Invest On Us High Yield Bonds And Asian Bonds

Emerging Market Bonds - 15%

1. FIDELITY EMERMKTDEBT A-SGD - Over 50% On Government Debt

Asian Bonds - 20%,  allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely: 

1. FIDELITY ASIAN HY AMDIST USD - Over 50% On Asian Industrial Bonds

2. LEGG MASON WA ASIAN BOND TRUST - Mainly On Asian Government Debt

PHILOSOPHY BEHIND PORTFOLIO 4

This portfolio aims to achieve mid to long term capital appreciation by investing 50% to bonds funds and 50% into equity funds. Our current view on the market is that Asia equities are generally undervalued after huge the correction from August to October 2011. At the same time, we believe that the Europe debt problem cannot be solved in the near term but do not wish to miss out on the upside opportunities on the brighter Asia market.

Based on a three year average annualised return on high yield bonds, Asian Bonds and Emerging Market bonds all have a yield above 10%. Therefore this balanced portfolio offers stable yield from high return bonds to offset volatility during tumultuous market conditions while this arrangement still has the flexibility to rebalance towards to 60-65% equity if the overall market continues to deteriorate. As we are bias toward Asia markets, we have allocated an overall 35% weight on Asia equity including single country equity in China and Hong Kong which we believe offer the highest growth po tential. Global Emerging Market's equity's three years average annualised return is about 15% (reasonable return). This is to diversify the weightage on the equity portion as to not overweighting on the Asia region as a risk control measure. Overall, this portfolio's objective is to gain 15-25% return per annual basis.