China Minzhong Rebounded

Post Christmas Highlights:
China Minzhong rebound off their lows of $0.665 to $0.765 as of posting timing.

Coupled with positive press release marking their 40th years anniversary together with the official start of their new industrial park. Its processing capacity is approximately 3 times the current capacity which will spur further growth. The group also sees no slowdown in demand for vegetables so far despite European crisis and global economic uncertainty. Link to press release: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_C9D5027CC480F6404825797200821A0B/$file/Minzhong_PressRelease_27Dec11.pdf?openelement

Currently still holding on to 45 lots of China Minzhong. Based on the chart reading, MACD turning positive and on the way to create cross over. As mentioned on my previous chart reading. Best time to buy is when MACD not yet crossing over. Immediate target to load will be about $0.80 with resistance level near $0.825. If more positive news on macro, there may be a chance of breakout too. Keep watching. S&C recommend a buy with TP $0.80 short term and $1.10 in 6 months.

S Reits Picks for 2012

How I pick a Reits stocks:
1) look at the yields
2) look at the sectors
3) its gearing level
4) share price

Therefore, I have pick the followings which I wish to build on my passive income portfolio:
1) Sabana - Industrial
Yield about 10% p.a at share price of $0.865 with low gearing at about 20+%

2) AIMS AMP - Industrial
Yield about 11% p.a at share price of $0.95 with gearing at about 30%

3) Ascendas India Trust - Industrial
Yield about 10% at share price of $0.69

4) Lippo Mall - Retail (Indonesia)
Yield about 10% at share price of $0.34 with low gearing at about 12%.

All these Reits also appear to have capital appreciation chances if market are stable.

Sunday Babe - Viann Zhang Xinyu 张馨予 (China)

Profile

Name: Viann Zhang Xinyu (张馨予)
DOB: 28 March 1987
Country: China
Profession: Model/ Celebrity
Analysis: Hailed as the #1 Beauty from Suzhou. With titles like China's Best Soccer Babe (中国第一足球宝贝) and Best Online Gaming Model (网游第一美女), she's becoming one of the fast rising star in China. Indeed, her angelic face and devil-like figure (33F cup) sure capture a few more looks from guys. Fame raises fast for her with some scandal with Ron Ng.  (classified as growth stock S-chip (due to gaining fame through some scandal) -worth keeping if you got the money)
Appearance: Classy oriental look
Overall rating: 4.5 Star (out of five) 

Market Review 8 Dec 2011 - Capitaland, NOL, China Minzhong

Recap: Last review on noble was spot on. It rebounded from 1.06 to a high of 1.245. But I didnt follow through my analysis and too impatient. Else I would have reap about 2k profit. Another of my trade Sakari did pretty well too, entering at 1.885 and I exited way too early at 1.94. Which later balloon to as high as 2.11. missing out a 1k potential profit again. Cool entry but poor exit. Need to improve on this.

After a week of rally, I cannot find any interesting stock to long. Therefore went short on NOL. I also may go long on China Minzhong. (need to watch closely in case it break the support line.)

Market Review 27 Nov 2011 - STI, Noble and etc

After quite a break, I'm back to trading. I will be doing a quick analysis on the charting of STI and a few blue chip stocks. Currently my only opening position is Noble at average price of S$1.12.

Seems like STI may be in for a inverse head and shoulder if they are able to hold above 2600. Chances to rebound seems quite possible but may just be short-live. Much depends on the macro level of other market. Risk taker may position in your  trade in phases to catch sudden rebound (May not happen too).

We knew that they suffered  their 1st loss in 14 years and CEO had also quit on the same day of earning report. There were some share-buy back around $1.175-$1.21 range, however it was not able to stop Noble from falling further. From the chart analysis, noble is currently a downtrending stock trading within the given channel. Current price coincide with the lower band of the trading channel. Based on the MACD, before any cross over, is usually the point to start accumulating. MACD turning green with RSI near 30%. I am quite confident that Noble will rebound in 1-2 weeks time. 1st resistance will be $1.20, follow by $1.30. I am not looking for large profit due to the weak economic outlook. Therefore, if there is nice rebound of about 10-20 cents, I am happy to offload it unless more positive news are out. 

Some sign of reverse head and shoulder in sight, however, other indicator does not show strong support yet. Will avoid  trading Genting until stronger indication of rebound in sight.

Actually, I quite like this counter due to the fact that they diversified into non core business (loan). But investors do not seems to like it and their share price was very depressed even they were able to make decent profits. One likely reason was ship builder likely to going into tough situation if Europe continue to give problems. The chart does not look nice at all. Avoid trading YZJ too given marco outlook and chart signal downwards. 

Sunday Babe - Hannah Quinlivan (Jay Chou's Girlfriend)

Profile

Name: Hannah Quinlivan (昆凌)
DOB: 12 August 1993
Country: Taiwanese/ Australian.
Profession: Model/ Celebrity
Analysis: Apart from her sweet looking appearance, being young maybe her most valuable asset. Other than that, she has Jay Chou being the "Kao Shan" (backing). So even if she got nothing else but look, she is still a media/gossips magnet. (classified as Penny Speculating Stock - lots of surprising element)

Appearance: Cute, mixed eurasian look
Overall rating: 3.0 Star (out of five)

FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge

After clearing all exam, finally I have time to blog again. About a month ago, I submitted my recommended portfolio for FSM's The Members' Portfolio Challenge and my portfolio was featured. Before the submission, there was not instruction to give the suggested funds for the particular sector which we recommended, so I just submitted the allocation. Therefore, I take take this opportunity to post my recommended funds here for those who is interested to know based on my recommended portfolio. Below is the portfolio posted on FSM - http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=5737 : 

PORTFOLIO 4

Asia ex-Japan - 25% allocation will be split into 3 funds: namely:

1. FTIF-TEMPLETON ASIAN GRTH A(ACC) SGD - Focus On Energy 

2. FIRST STATE ASIAN GROWTH FUND -  Focus On Financial

3. HGIF ASIA EX-JAP EQ SM COS SGD AD - Focus On Small - Mid Cap 

Global Emerging Markets - 15% allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely:

1. FIRST STATE GEM LEADERS - Well Diversified In Terms Of Industries

2. ABERDEEN GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS - Good Exposure To Financials And Energy Sectors

China & Hong Kong - Total 10%

1. ABERDEEN CHINA OPPORTUNITIES - 73% Allocation On Hong Kong Stocks

2. FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS-SGD - 92% Allocation On China Stocks

High Yield Bonds - 15%

1. PRU MTHLY INCOME PLAN CL A - Mainly Invest On Us High Yield Bonds And Asian Bonds

Emerging Market Bonds - 15%

1. FIDELITY EMERMKTDEBT A-SGD - Over 50% On Government Debt

Asian Bonds - 20%,  allocation will be split into 2 funds: namely: 

1. FIDELITY ASIAN HY AMDIST USD - Over 50% On Asian Industrial Bonds

2. LEGG MASON WA ASIAN BOND TRUST - Mainly On Asian Government Debt

PHILOSOPHY BEHIND PORTFOLIO 4

This portfolio aims to achieve mid to long term capital appreciation by investing 50% to bonds funds and 50% into equity funds. Our current view on the market is that Asia equities are generally undervalued after huge the correction from August to October 2011. At the same time, we believe that the Europe debt problem cannot be solved in the near term but do not wish to miss out on the upside opportunities on the brighter Asia market.

Based on a three year average annualised return on high yield bonds, Asian Bonds and Emerging Market bonds all have a yield above 10%. Therefore this balanced portfolio offers stable yield from high return bonds to offset volatility during tumultuous market conditions while this arrangement still has the flexibility to rebalance towards to 60-65% equity if the overall market continues to deteriorate. As we are bias toward Asia markets, we have allocated an overall 35% weight on Asia equity including single country equity in China and Hong Kong which we believe offer the highest growth po tential. Global Emerging Market's equity's three years average annualised return is about 15% (reasonable return). This is to diversify the weightage on the equity portion as to not overweighting on the Asia region as a risk control measure. Overall, this portfolio's objective is to gain 15-25% return per annual basis.

Tiger Airway Holdings Ltd - update

Mr. Anthony Alfred Peter Davis is the Group President and Group Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director of Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd is selling off his rights-issued shares. This was a show of no confident in his company at least in the short term. My previous posting target price of S$0.066 was reached, currently trading at S$0.655 per share. As such, without further news, spikes&curves change our view on Tiger Airway to neutral. 

Tribute to Steve Jobs

I must admit that I'm not a Apple lover from the beginning because like how I pick my stocks, I always support the underdogs. My 1st apple product was an iPhone 4. At that point of time, I am contemplating which smart phone should I get, a Samsung Galaxy S or iPhone 4. Eventually, I picked an iPhone 4 and immediately fall in love with it. I also worried about how difficult to relearn all the new functions of a smart phone. But within 2 days, I am so comfortable with it. Great product from Steve Job!

On Friday, I pick up an newspaper and read an article he gave during a graduation convocation. I must said, I am touched by what he said. One of the things he said was, "sometimes, life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. You got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. If you have'nt found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle." This part really hits me in my heart. I gave up easily when I met obstacles. I should fight for things I love, find a job which I'm passionate in. I will keep looking.

Back to Steve, he was a visionary leader whom looks what the futures lies. Similarly, investing in the stock market requires many foresight and guts feeling to go against the general trend at times. If you found a under value stock which are not moving. Don't get panic. As long you do your due diligence well, one day, you will be rewarded for keep faith.

Keep hungry and stay foolish. Steve Job, thank you for your great product.

S Reits Overview

REITs Traded on SGX are detailed in the table below, that also includes the respective location of assets, sector coverage and dividend yields.   

Market Review 4 Sep 2011

Another month has passed. A quick look back in August, market has been very volatile. Manage to make slight profit from contra and very short term trading. I have been hitting to right stocks such as Noble at 1.303, HPH at 0.605, YZJ at 0.965 and the most recent put warrants last week, but however didnt make much due to my fear of market turning too fast. I sold off most at very small profit. My worst miss was the HSI put warrant bought last wed. If only I hold on till friday or even next week, I could have rake in a near 100% gain in 3-4 days. Moving forward, I have to be more confident of my analysis and stick to my trade for higher profit.

September had been always said to be the month which perform poorly in the stock market. One particular theory points to the fact the summer months usually offer light trading volumes on the stock market, as a good deal of investors typically take vacation time and refrain from selling stocks from their portfolio. Once fall begins these investors typically return to work and exit positions they had been planning on selling. When this occurs, the market experiences increased selling pressure, and thus an overall decline.

spikes&curves investment stunt is still conservative especially when most stocks has rebounded. I will continue to do short term trading.

Some of stock under my radar are:

Amtek, Mermaid, Singtel (short), Olam (short) 

Sunday Babe - Nat Nattasha

Profile

Name: Nat Nattasha
DOB: 16 September 1992
Country: Thailand
Profession: Artist, director
Analysis: Rising Star, Rocker Babe (Growth Stock with large potential)

Appearance: Cute
Overall rating: 3.8 Star (out of five)

Cash Rich S-chip

S-chip companies had been badly sold down during past few months. Even those performed relatively well are not able to avoid it. spikes&curves look into some of the S-chips with large cash holdings vs their share price.

1) Changtian 

FA: Disposes some of their unprofitable business operation and company has been coping with rising raw material cost which reduces their profit margin. Near term business not much turnaround.

TA: Trading at very low price. Near all time low.

6 mth EPS: 1.84 RMB

Cash holdings: $0.219 per share. (currently traded at $0.055-0.06)

2) China fibertech

FA: 6 mth 2011 earning improved. However, management mentioned order had dropped in q2. Nevertheless, should maintain profitable for 2011.

TA: Damn low.

6 mth EPS: 5.0 RMB

Cash holdings: $0.166 per share (currently traded at $0.05-0.051)


But do you dare to buy? spikes&curves do hold the above mentioned two counters.

Tiger Airway Holdings Ltd

Tiger Airway announced offer of 1 for 2 renounceable rights issue up to 273,423,930 new ordinary shares at issue price of S$0.58 per Rights Share. This is at discount of approximately 39% to the last traded price of S$0.955. The theoretical ex-rights price of S$0.83.

After rights issue, their net tangible asset increase to S$0.395 from S$0.309. EPS also will also improve from (3.8cts) to (2.5cts). Budget airline is a high growth industry, however, competition is also very intense. The recent negative impact on Tiger Airway's business in Australia definitely deal a heavy blow to their revenue. It also affect their already poor branding. Those whom already holding Tiger's shares will be facing selldown in coming weeks. Those whom looking to buy should wait longer first.

spikesandcurves recommends a sell on Tiger Airway based on two factors. In near term, their revenue grow will be weak or even making losses. Secondly, there is not catalyst to warrant a strong support. Risk reward factor does not justify a buy at all. However, we also feel that after their rights issue, and some recovering period, Tiger may look attractive if business improves together with a better economy outlook. Target price S$0.66, a 20% discount of theoretical post rights price of S$0.83.

Sabana Shari'ah Compliant REIT

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT is a real estate investment trust constituted on 29 October 2010 under the laws of Singapore.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT is established principally to invest in income-producing real estate used for industrial purposes in Asia, as well as real estate-related assets, in line with Shari’ah investment principles. The initial property portfolio of Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT comprises 15 industrial properties located across Singapore.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT is committed to distribute 100.0% of its Taxable Income and taxexempt income, if any, for the period from the Listing Date to 31 December 2012 and thereafter to  distribute at least 90.0% of its Taxable Income and tax-exempt income, if any (after deduction of applicable  expenses).

2nd Quarter Highlights

Things to note:

• High Occupancy Rate over all their properties: 14 out of 15 property achieve 100% occupancy rate. With average lease expiry of 3.2 yrs.
• Net Asset Value at S$0.98
• Forecast yield based on current share price of $S0.85 is 10.1% p.a 

Due to the unstable economy outlook in the US and EU zone, REITs may offer a better and safer way to park your capital with. Sabana Reits focus on Singapore industrial properties will offer stable rental income for its unitholders. spikes&curves recommends buy on Sabana Reit. 

Market Review 6 Aug 2011

Over the past two days, global stock markets had been seriously whacked down by investors and traders. There was no cheers from the news on lifting the US debt ceiling, instead fears were all in the investors mind. Late on friday US time, Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the credit rating of the United States, stripping the world's largest economy of its prized AAA status.


Few weeks ago, I had already declared bull market is over. In fact, if you could see, most of the stocks on SGX were correcting since as early as 2010. The STI has been maintaining its bull mainly due to certain strong component stocks holding STI up. 

  

As you can see, the current indicies are still traded quite high. Judging from the Euro and US debt problem, likely chance that soon they will be going into another round of recession. Which mean asia market more or less will be affected too no matter what.


Therefore, spikes&curves investment stunt is rather conservative at this moment. Those large drop may present short term trading opportunities. However, we recommend to take profit as fast as possible.